Inventing Future Cities: A review by Olivia Chan

An overview

In his first chapter, Predictability, Complexity, and Inventing the Future, Batty first differentiates the future as a product of prediction vs understanding the future as a product of invention. He expresses his opinions of predictions as flawed because he sees the “future [as] a series of events that are random in their occurrence in size and scale in space and time. From this perspective, no single event is any more probable at any one time than any other when conceived over the very long term" (2018, p. 2). Therefore, the inherent nature of the future would be unpredictable. When that theory is scaled up to forecast the future of the complexity within cities, in which reside self-organising structures, prone and reliant on emergent behaviour, the theory of invention is the one most suitable to describe cities. Especially when we are able to view them not as components of machines, but an ongoing organic process.

Through this lens, Batty then goes on to outline the 5 principles from which he believes that cities will be developed upon. Namely, the first is Zipf’s law (1949) pertaining to size distribution. This dictates the urbanisation of our global populations, not into a singular megacity, but in many cities of smaller sizes. The second principle relates to Glazer’s “paradox of the modern metropolis” (2018, pp.14) which suggests that despite the reduction of travel cost and time, proximity still matters and is becoming more important. Batty’s third underpinning principle is Von Thunen’s standard model (1826) which dictates that cities are essentially structured around its central business district. Batty then states H.G. Wells’ suggestion that population distribution is dependent on the available transports which essentially tie populations together (1902) as his fourth principle. And finally, Tobler’s first law of Geography (1970) ordaining “everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things” (pp.234-240), which essentially dictates that distance will remain the great arbiter of cities, concludes his framing of the future growth of cities.

The second chapter The Great Transition largely elaborates Zipf’s law (1949) and discusses the transition the planet’s rural population to an urban population. He evaluates the past and the super exponential growth of previous populations (namely during the 1970s) which resulted in “doomsday” scenarios from theorists in which these contexts have nurtured.  Within this consideration, Batty again emphasises the flawed nature of prediction. As the evidence and trends up until that point never showed signs of slowing, theorists could almost be forgiven for predicting the ongoing growth of populations. It is only really with the gift of hindsight and others who seem to be able to understand beyond the limits of what others view as a closed system, who were able to forecast the future in a different light. But in returning to the explanation of the transitioning population trends, Batty points to Hawking’s speech whereby he asserts that “a world population heading to infinity is simply impossible” (1998). The new understanding of a plateauing population is then examined via UN’s population data which proposes that the entire global population may be “urbanised by 2090” (2017). The utilisation of Zipf’s law (1949) is then utilised to navigate what this means in terms of architecture and urban planning. This application, which effectively limits the critical mass in which cities are able to function, insinuates the frequency of city sizes to remain log normal. The encompassing definition of “urban” an “urbanised” population may mean that many may live in mega-cities but also that many will also reside in small towns (2018).

Since Batty has now established the importance of the city or at least, the urban landscape, as our future environment, he then moves on to how we essentially propagate the city. Primarily, Batty evaluates how cities have come to be and through this, emphasises that cities are truly bottom-up developments. He defines the process to begin with a small assemblage of neighbouring households who, via their collective labour and the clustering and specialisation of services in relation to location over time, eventually forms the building blocks required for the emerging city. Although Batty seems to have simplified the process of the emergence of cites, they are still ultimately complex systems. He then highlights that although it may seem like cities are nested and have clear hierarchies, in fact the human nature of creating internal and external links between each building block of the city creates “overlapping levels and linkages which blur its edges” (p.46) especially as our social and economic networks now span beyond our immediate locales. This has lead to the further evolution of city growth as city statuses can now reach to world cities” and “megalopolis” (Geddes and Weber, 1946). The example of the Pearl River Delta to then used to demonstrate the continuous urban growth via networks between the central nodes of Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Macau, Zuhai which have developed links and have now become an urban constellation. This then aids Batty to conclusively define the city, “first as nodes where activities take place” (p.57) which are then related via networks of social and economic interaction which acts as connectors. These nodes and connections are then “anchored” (p.58) via the city’s geometry and geography which encompasses the physical and ethereal networks.

In examining the actual form of these clusters of nodes and connections which make up our cities, Batty then challenges a much-accepted notion in the consecutive chapter: Form Follows Function - Or does it? Here, the qualitative changes which occur in city functions are reviewed in relation to the top-down design theories which have speculated and aimed to influence the future forms of cities. In defining this function, Batty rationalises that the city is not so much defined by the actual location of the development but by the interactions which happen between its locations. Illustrating this, he describes the city as a flow of energy using some material examples and provides the associated visuals for including the enabling of traffic and pedestrians via a street network and “inflow, outflow and backflow” of people into the city. Following this, the author then highlights changes we have undergone within these flows of energy regarding, social interactions, exchange of goods and financial capital. These complex “flows of energy” compared to the organic metaphors of a “flow of blood, the nervous system” and even,” coral reefs” (p.87). Due the relative novelty of these networks and exchanges, there is a lack of sufficient representation which studies and tracks these fundamental interactions which allows for the proper functioning of our cities. The last qualitative change related to prosperity as the incomes of cities positively correlate to the populations within them which, along with JRC data and prediction from the UN, suggests that we will be living in bigger cities. These changes coupled with the seemingly inevitable growth has led Batty to conclude that the physical boundaries of cities are being eroded as our activities are no longer exclusively enabled by their locations.

Following this focus of disconnect between activity and location, The Pulse of the City then interprets the dynamics of the city’s function by relating it to time. This is what Batty refers to as “Temporal cycles, flows and flux” (pp.104). Batty proposes that short term secular trends regarding city dweller behaviours can reveal themselves if we were to look at the ebb and flow of data pertaining to them. And by spotting these patterns, it may also aid us in understanding how the future city may respond to or at least include such activity. Batty highlights that technology is increasingly integrated into the city’s fabric, enabling us to live more efficiently. Consequently, most of our activities then leave behind digital footprints. But such is the capacity of these technologies to record data by the second, that these large volumes of digital byproduct is formatted almost as fumes from an exhaust – highly unorganised. Batty provides examples of some of the systems producing big data such as that collected from London Underground and data tracking Twitter activity to exhibit how inhabitants continually connect and disconnect forming streams which contribute to a “connected skin” (pp.128) across the city which continually dies and renews as the nodes of activity transform in time. Batty advocates that although we may not be able to fully interpret all the activities of this which comes from this social and economic, self-organising organism of the city but with these new opportunities comes the assurance that it will disrupt the traditional ways we conceive the city.  

It is only now in chapter 6: Outward, Inward, and Upward: Suburbs to Skyscrapers that Batty begins to concentrate on the actual physical manifestation of the links and networks previously identified. He refines the development of cities into three factions; Outward (which essentially relates to sprawl when the space around the city’s periphery is developed at a lower density but is enabled via transport connections), Inward (which pertains to the redevelopment and regeneration within the city core, via the renewal of infrastructures) and Upward (often referring to the “cathedrals of commerce” (pp.138) which are usually confined to the core of cities and envelops a variety of activities”. The author briefly charts the development of the skyscraper as a symbol of the CBD looking at the technologies such as innovations in hydraulic counterweight system which enabled the first elevator we well as steel frames which have facilitated the ambitions to build ever higher. Sprawl is equally examined as suburbanisation has been the dominant form of city growth. And although it seems to be a current trend that regeneration is most popular amongst the worlds cities, past global behaviour has shown a skyscraper building boom with each 10-15 year of economic prosperity, the growth of cities is demonstrated by Batty to encompass all three of these developments.  

The defining core change to this particular era of seems to be insinuated by Batty in chapter 7 to be continual integrations of computation within cities. He accredits a large proportion of this to Moore’s Law (1965) which is based on miniaturisation which he deducted from his time at Intel. To describe the influence of network connectivity in the future of cities, Batty also tributes the anticipation of changes to Metcalfe (1974), Gilder (2000) and Sarnoff’s law. Which effectively states that the values of networked computers is to increase exponentially in relation the amount of information it can process, especially with the tripling of bandwidth.